Scotland’s approach to tackling climate change has come under criticism in recent years.
A key target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75 per cent by 2030 was scrapped in April, prompting climate campaigners to argue the Scottish Government had “failed to act strongly enough” to tackle carbon pollution.
But with Cop29 taking place in Azerbaijan this week, three years on from Glasgow hosting the UN climate summit, Ferret Fact Service looked at how Scotland is currently performing in tackling climate change.
What are the Scottish Government’s climate targets now?
Scotland’s targets were set out in 2019, with a commitment to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045, alongside interim targets of a 75 per cent reduction by 2030, and 90 per cent by 2040.
These interim targets were scrapped this year, with energy secretary Mairi McAllan admitting that the 2030 interim target of cutting emissions by 75 per cent was no longer achievable.
New legislation removing the targets was passed by the Scottish Parliament in November. The new law will see the Scottish Government using a five-year cycle of carbon budgeting, instead of reducing gradually through annual targets.
A carbon budget puts a limit on the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted over a five-year period, rather than annual targets, which are more prone to fluctuation.
How are they doing on getting to net zero?
The Scottish Government insists it remains committed to the 2045 net zero target.
Progress on greenhouse gas emissions is tracked in annual monitoring reports as set out in the 2019 legislation.
The latest statistics cover 2022, when Scottish emissions of greenhouse gases were estimated to be 40.6 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e).
This was down 50.1 per cent from the baseline year of 1990, and down 0.1 per cent from 2021.
For Scotland to be on track to meet its net zero target, emissions should have reduced by 53.8 per cent from 1990 by 2020. So the Scottish Government is currently behind where it needs to be.To meet the target for emissions reduced for 2022, there would have had to be a 53.8 per cent reduction since 1990, so this target was missed.
What about in different sectors?
As well as overall greenhouse gas emissions, the Scottish Government monitors pollution from the different sectors of the Scottish economy.
Each year, there is a non-binding target for the emissions from each sector on the way to achieving ‘net zero’. These provide useful context on which sectors are the most problematic for the government when it comes to meeting its overall target. The data is published in an annual report.
Agriculture
The agriculture sector emitted 7.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2022, missing its target of 6.5. It has seen an 11.9 per cent fall between 1990 and 2022. There was a 0.3 MtCO2e fall between 2021 and 2022.
Buildings
Emissions from the building sector have reduced significantly since 1990, with 32.7 per cent less greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. This is mainly down to the switch away from more polluting fuels, and improvements in energy efficiency.
There was a 13.8 per cent reduction between 2021 and 2022. This has been attributed to higher fuel prices and relatively warmer winter months, resulting in less fuel being used in heating. In 2022, it emitted 7.5 MtCO2e, missing its target of 7.1.
Electricity supply
Historically, our electricity supply was responsible for more emissions than any other Scottish sector. However there’s been an 88.1 per cent reduction in emissions since 1990, as a result of the end of coal power being used for electricity generation in Scotland, and the general reduction in fossil fuel use.
Between 2021 and 2022 there was a 0.2 MtCO2e increase in emissions, due to more gas generation. The sector emitted 1.7 MtCO2e in 2022,with a target of 1.6.
Transport
Domestic transport is another big historical emitter. The Covid-19 lockdown led to a significant reduction in emissions, but since then emissions increased consecutively in 2021 and 2022.
In 2022, the total emissions from the sector was 11.5 MtCO2e, missing its target of 9.4.
Fuel supply
These are emissions created by the production and supply of fossil fuels like oil and gas, and other energy. Fuel supply emissions have halved since 1990, and contributed 3.3 MtCO2e in 2022.
Industry
Reductions in emissions from Scotland’s iron and steel industry in the 1990s led to a 56.8 per cent fall in emissions between 1990 and 2022 to 5.5 MtCO2e. The target of 11.1 MtCO2e or below was comfortably met.
International aviation and shipping
Scotland’s share of the UK’s emissions in aviation, and to a lesser extent shipping, was impacted by Covid-19 restrictions. However, between 1990 and 2022, the sector’s contribution to emissions has increased by 0.2 MtCO2e to 1.5.
Land Use and Forestry
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, or LULUCF is an important part of the ScottishGovernment’s climate policies. It refers to the impact of human-caused changes to how land and forestry can help to absorb carbon.
Things like maintaining and increasing tree cover and the restoration of peat can help to reduce greenhouse gases, and increase the amount of carbon dioxide that is absorbed.
LULUCF can be both a carbon ‘sink’ – a process or activity that removes greenhouse gas from the atmosphere – or it can be a net emitter of greenhouse gases, depending on how it is managed.
Currently, LULUCF is a net emitter of greenhouse gases rather than a ‘sink’.
In 2022, the sector emitted 0.2 MtCO2e of net emissions, beating its 0.4 target. In 1990 net emissions were 6.0 MtCO2e. However, between 2009 and 2017, LULUCF was a carbon sink, removing greenhouse gases in Scotland, with carbon captured through forestry playing a significant role.
Waste
Emissions from waste management in Scotland have been static in recent years at
1.6 MtCO2e, but reduced 75.4 per cent between 1990 and 2021.The sector failed to meet its target of 1.3 MtCO2e in 2022.
Ferret Fact Service (FFS) is a non-partisan fact checker, and signatory to the International Fact-Checking Network fact-checkers’ code of principles.
All the sources used in our checks are publicly available and the FFS fact-checking methodology can be viewed here.
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